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Monday, February 9, 2015

The Zombie Jobs Recovery

Looking long term over a seven year period going back to Bush and pre-TARP:
  • Actual raw employment has barely increased, despite population growth – see the nearly 7% increase (about one percent annually) in the civilian noninstitutional population -- and significant immigration;
  • The civilian labor force has barely grown, despite population growth and significant immigration. The seven year increase since December 2007 is microscopic.
  • In fact, the seven-year civilian labor force increase has been less than the average annual increase in the civilian noninstitutional population.
  • In the same interval, there has been an approximate 501,000 loss in self-employment, a metric included in the “employed.” ENTREPRENEURS AND SOLE PROPRIETORS AND SOLO PRACTITIONERS HAVE DISAPPEARED AND HAVE NEVER COME BACK FROM 2008-09. 
  • Looking most optimistically at the reported data, at best, the raw numbers of TOTAL employed, NOT COUNTING the self-employed, have grown about one percent – over seven years.
  • Despite the foregoing, the number of those not in the workforce nor in prison has exploded by more than two percent annually, outpacing regular population growth and more than double the growth of the civilian noninstitutional population.
  • In fact, the seven-year growth of the “not in the labor force” category accounts for nearly the entire growth in the civilian noninstitutional population.
There's more in my new economic research report, published by the Financial Policy Council this morning.

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