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Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Big Boy's Big Blunder?: Christie's Landslide Promise

Why in the world would a successful and nationally popular Republican Governor -- especially one who is presumed to be a frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination -- set the highest bar of an electoral landslide in this upcoming November's general election?

Chris Christie last week predicted he would win re-election in a landslide.  His prediction sets his bar very high; worse, he publicly stated this prediction instead of keeping it to himself.  Unless he is given to extreme arrogance, his publicly-spoken prediction leaves him extremely vulnerable to underperforming (that is, winning by a modest margin or less).  Any disappointing margin of victory weakens his image as a presumptively electable Republican presidential candidate.  Conversely, he made it very hard for himself to meet this entirely self-imposed expectation.  At the very least, the second-guessing his prediction fosters raises a significant question as to his political and strategic judgment.

There can be only two reasons for this inexplicably puzzling public prediction: Either he has amazing confidence, or for some reason not yet revealed to the rest of us, Christie does not plan to run for president. 

At least, not as a Republican.

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