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Thursday, August 2, 2012

New York City Real Estate Might Collapse

New York City real estate prices might be on the verge of collapse. Noted real estate analyst Keith Jurow has been warning of a second housing price crash for at least two years now. I've personally checked his work and questioned him. His analysis is very solid and I totally agree. (I also have explained my December 2011 reasoning for a 50% to 80% price drop.)

Jurow was a big hit -- and a strong wakeup call -- to an audience at a June 2012 event held by the Financial Policy Council, a think tank on whose board of directors I serve.


In a passage from the Rick Grant blog, Keith Jurow writes:
"I just received the updated second quarter serious delinquency stats...truly scary. More than 400,000 seriously delinquent owner-occupied properties just in NYC and Long Island. Almost none of them have been put into foreclosure. Sooner or later, the banks have to start acting on them. When they do, home prices collapse throughout the NYC metro area -- 19 million people. I am as certain of that as I am that the sun will rise tomorrow morning."
Jurow continues:
"I have posted charts in my articles which show that after a property goes delinquent more than 60 days, 95% of them will not become current again. This means that some action against the borrower will have to be taken at some point in the future.  The only real exception is those delinquent owners who receive some kind of mortgage modification. But we have very good data from OCC and Hope Now which show that over 50% of all mortgages that were modified have become delinquent again . . .
"For two years, I've been saying that the banks can't keep extending and pretending indefinitely. Once they start to take some action -- either foreclosure or a short sale -- prices in the entire NYC metro area will collapse."

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