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Friday, July 6, 2012

What June's Bad Jobs Report Really Means

The June 2012 jobs numbers just released this morning are beginning to reveal, in statistics, the economy's weakness which has been heavy in anecdotal evidence but masked by government manipulation.

The headline data was about flat (with the official unemployment rate holding at 8.2%), but the scary figure is the anemic 80,000 increase in nonfarm employment. But the non-seasonally adjusted (i.e., the real) numbers are worse.

Approximately 12.7 million people were unemployed in June, virtually unchanged from May 2012 -- until you factor in all these illegal aliens who now can get work permits and are now no longer officially invisible.  If 800,000 work permits will be granted, then the 156 million person labor force should reflect that increase. As no jobs are created by these permits, their recognition necessarily must cause the unemployed number to rise by an amount equal to the work permits to be granted, and thus the unemployment rate should rise by 0.5% solely on this basis.  Now, the Labor Department claims that at least some "undocumented immigrants" are counted in its jobs. Nonsense! No one who's successfully been avoiding deportation for years will talk to anyone from the federal government. That's how they've stayed in the country all these years. The Labor Department is insulting our intelligence with this claim. 

Ostensibly, the labor force grew by a seasonally-adjusted 156,000 in June. The non-adjusted (i.e., the real) labor force increase was about 1.4 million in June, of which only about 500,000 was accounted for by the increase in employed persons.  That means there was an increase of 900,000 in the non-adjusted number of unemployed. That's why the non-adjusted unemployment rate just increased by 0.5% from May to June.

Finally, the unadjusted U-6 measure of unemployment, counting unemployed plus those marginally attached to the labor force, plus the total working only part-time for economic reasons (the underemployed), rose 0.8% from 14.3% in May to 15.1% in June.

Eric Dixon is a New York investigative lawyer, political and business strategist and radio talk show host. Mr. Dixon is also on the Board of Directors of the independent economic think tank the Financial Policy Council.  

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