The Friday evening official National Weather Service forecast calls for New York's Central Park to experience blizzard-level gusts during Saturday night and to receive close to four inches of snow. Air temperatures should approach the freezing mark, which is surely enough to produce snow (air temps under 38 degrees are usually enough) and the danger of "black ice." The cause is a fall nor'easter that will bring heavy rain, cold temperatures and heavy sustained winds to areas near the coastline.
New York has NEVER received more than one inch of October snow since weather records started being kept in 1869, and the last measurable October snowfall (0.5 inch) was in 1952. Even in November, measurable snow is rare and most years do not measure even a trace of snow. The last November measurable snowfall was in 1996.
In interior sections of the Northeast and particularly in the Poconos and Catskill Mountain regions, over a foot of the wet, heavy snow can fall. This poses a particular risk of falling branches. The fact that most trees still have leaves on them, because there hasn't been a killing frost in any but the highest elevations, amplifies the danger.
Curious about other New York weather records: click here. For more Northeast weather arcana specifically relating to this potentially historic storm, click here for Accuweather.com's report.
Other forecasts in the region of note:
Newark NJ: about five inches of snow Saturday night, and lows Sunday night in the upper 20s.
Philadelphia PA: farther from the ocean, thus expected to get only about one inch.
Islip NY: not as much snow (maybe one inch) but gusts of over 50 mph Sunday morning.
Eric Dixon is a New York investigative lawyer who uses creative and strategic abilities to solve clients' legal, managerial, operational or personal problems.