(PS: National Weather Service predicts 55 mph gusts at New York's Central Park for most of Sunday.)
The official National Hurricane Center forecast, 120 hours out, predicts the center of Hurricane Irene will be over Long Beach, NY at 8 pm Sunday night. However, as the storm track has been generally moving to the right of the guidance envelope -- the composite of all the model tracks for the storm's movement -- I expect the actual track to continue shifting eastward and away from the New York / Mid-Atlantic coast. Perhaps a direct strike on Cape Cod will be more likely.
Eric Dixon LLC
World-Class Strategic Analysis