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Monday, August 22, 2011

Hurricane Irene Headed For New York, Mid-Atlantic

New computer runs earlier this afternoon predict that Hurricane Irene will be just 100-150 miles off the New Jersey coast by next weekend. A direct hit on Long Island -- which has not had a hurricane make landfall there since Gloria in 1985 -- is a distinct possibility.

UPDATE 8/24 1 AM: This storm is behaving in a way that really reminds me of 1985's Gloria.  Why am I thinking a direct hit from a Saffir-Simpson Category 1 Hurricane Irene on Sunday will happen?

(PS:  National Weather Service predicts 55 mph gusts at New York's Central Park for most of Sunday.)

The official National Hurricane Center forecast, 120 hours out, predicts the center of Hurricane Irene will be over Long Beach, NY at 8 pm Sunday night.   However, as the storm track has been generally moving to the right of the guidance envelope -- the composite of all the model tracks for the storm's movement -- I expect the actual track to continue shifting eastward and away from the New York / Mid-Atlantic coast.  Perhaps a direct strike on Cape Cod will be more likely.

Other runs suggest a direct hit on the Carolinas by the end of this week by Irene, which should be a Category 3 hurricane (meaning sustained winds of more than 115 mph) upon landfall.

All interests along the Atlantic Coast should monitor Irene's continuing development and movement.

National Hurricane Center website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Eric Dixon
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