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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Calling NY Gov: Paladino In GOP Upset

At 10:59 pm Crime, Politics and Policy will be the first to call the New York Republican gubernatorial primary for Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino.

About 37% of the vote is in.  However, historical statewide primary votes suggest that no more than 250,000 to 300,000 Republicans vote in any statewide primary, which implies that 125,000-150,000 votes should be sufficient for victory.

Paladino already has surpassed 150,000 in the actual vote.  Hence, the prediction, even with two-thirds of precincts yet to report.

The Paladino victory should effectively end both the political elective office career of Rick Lazio and the leadership as state party chair, of Ed Cox.

Now the question becomes: Does Lazio even get to November?  Can he beat out Ralph Lorigo for the Conservative Party nomination?  With 36% in, Lazio leads by about 1,200 votes.   Typically, Conservative Party statewide primaries garner about 20,000-25,000 votes.

Eric Dixon is a New York election lawyer, political strategist and commentator.  He can be reached at 917-696-2442 all night (Election Night) through Wednesday morning, and by email at edixon@NYBusinessCounsel.com.

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