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Friday, May 28, 2010

Lazio's Magic Number: 75%

That's the percentage of the weighted delegate vote Rick Lazio needs to avoid a primary for governor on New York's Conservative Party.

Failing to get 75 percent against a Conservative Party member also running for governor means that Lazio would qualify for the primary ballot (because he'd have more than the 50 percent needed for the "Wilson-Pakula" authorization, which he needs as a non-Conservative Party member) but not have the nomination. In essence it would be a loss: he would face a Conservative primary and the risk of losing it to a virtual nobody.

My take: Lazio punts the nomination if he doesn't get 75 percent, in wich case the next domino is that the party hierarchy will try to pressure the "nobody" to decline the nomination. That would allow the party leaders to vote in mid-summer on a replacement, who would likely be the person then thought to be the frontrunner to win the Republican Party primary. The current Republican gubernatorial candidates: Steve Levy, Carl Paladino, possibly Myles Mermel, and the aforementioned Lazio.

All for the right to become a speed bump on Andrew Cuomo's victory lap.

Now you can understand the machinations...

Eric Dixon is a New York election lawyer. He can be reached at 917-696-2442 and through this website.

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