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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Crime, Politics and Policy Thisclose on NYC, NJ Predictions

Let's see how Dixon fared with last week's predictions on Tuesday's New York and New Jersey elections.

Last week I predicted that Chris Christie would win New Jersey as follows:  
Christie 47, Corzine 45, Daggett 6

Actual results:  Christie 49%, Corzine 45%, Daggett 6%. 

And in New York City, I predicted Bloomberg would only get 52%, with challenger William Thompson getting 44% and a protest Conservative Party candidate getting 3%.  

Actual results:  Bloomberg 50.6%, Thompson 46%, Christopher (Conservative) 1.6%, others about 1%.

What does this mean?  The significance of these elections is obvious.   The electorate, and particularly the middle class, is very angry on economic issues and is manifesting its class consciousness (a.k.a. resentment of the rich) by kicking out an uber-rich incumbent (Corzine) while rejecting Bloomberg to such a degree that his viability for other elected office should be in serious doubt.   Incumbents who barely reach 50% usually end up not winning ever again (see: Cuomo, Mario). 

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